The key, since 2006 or so if memory serves me well, has been the rise of the Taliban in Pakistan which has seemed like more fertile ground for the jihadis rather than trying to reverse looming defeat in Iraq and gain traction in Afghanistan where the locals learned to hate the Taliban and their al Qaeda hired guns. It is in Pakistan, then, that we (relying on the Pakistanis, but helping them with intelligence, financial aid, training, and Predator strikes) will win or lose the war against the latest jihad against us:
Al Qaeda has, as in Iraq, made itself very unpopular in Pakistan. That is increasing their casualties, and causing more security conscious al Qaeda to seek another sanctuary. But there are few left. Somalia and Yemen are more dangerous than Pakistan, and offer fewer amenities, or good targets. Thus Pakistan may prove to be the end of the road for al Qaeda. Ironically, it was in the tribal territories of Pakistan that al Qaeda was founded in the 1980s. In some cases, you can go home again, if only to die.I speculated about this outcome nearly 2-1/2 years ago:
If Pakistan may finally realize that they cannot make deals with jihadis, al Qaeda and their jihadi Taliban allies may be waging war on Pakistan because they have no choice.
If Pakistan will fight this war with no quarter, this could be the final jihad.
I do give credit to the Obama administration for keeping Pakistan on the line and in the fight--and for intensifying our efforts on the AFghan side of the border. But there is no partial credit in war should our progress be reversed. We need to see this through to victory.
