Since then, I've looked for signs that the protests have broadened to people beyond the Twittering Class. Despite some occasional signs and the persistence of the original narrow opposition, I've yet to see lasting evidence of widespread opposition to the mullahs. Strategypage reports on a less than hopeful poll:
Although Iranian Internet users are subject to lots of restrictions, this is not the case with telephones. So opinion polls are regularly conducted by firms outside the country. The only problem with this technique is that there is a bias against anti-government responses, because subjects are often fearful that the call is really from the secret police. Despite that, these surveys have found that 60 percent of the country want to reestablish diplomatic relations with the United States, although the majority do not trust the U.S. government (thanks to decades of anti U.S. government propaganda). The unrest over last Summers' elections are being driven by a minority of the population, as 82 percent Iranians believe the result of the election was fair, and that Ahmadinejad was the legitimate winner. Of those who said they voted, 55 percent voted for Ahmadinejad. A slight majority approve of the clergy having a veto over anything the parliament votes for. The majority of the population is not happy with economic conditions (growing inflation and unemployment).
Unless our CIA has been able to pave the way for a coup that looks like a popular revolt, we will have to face the decision of letting Iran go nuclear or attacking Iran to stop them. The Iranian regime might yet screw up and crack down too hard and too fast, and so create a broader opposition, but so far the regime is not making that mistake.
I wish a popular revolt would free us of the need to make this hard decision, but I don't think that we will be that lucky.
