Stupid and Vile?

I've long been worried that Axis of el Vil member Hugo Chavez could graduate to Axis of Evil levels and stop being just an annoying buffoon best ignored until he can shoot himself in the foot. We have other things to do given the war on jihadis, and diverting attention to that particular fool seemed like such a waste if we didn't have to respond to actual security threats that our allies (with our help) can't cope with.

Could this be true?

While the world has been preoccupied with the crisis in Haiti, Latin America has quietly passed through a tipping point in the ideological conflict that has polarized the region -- and paralyzed U.S. diplomacy -- for most of the past decade.

The result boils down to this: Hugo Chávez's "socialism for the 21st century" has been defeated and is on its way to collapse.

It would be nice if this was true and Hugo is on the way down and out.

Of course, Hugo might always decide to roll the dice and invade the Dutch Antilles in an effort to rally the people against a foreign enemy and thus save his regime.

We know Hugo is stupid. But do we know exactly how stupid he is?

UPDATE: Strategypage writes of the economic turmoil and that foreign adventure is always a perceived option:

Venezuela continues to complain that Colombia, and the U.S., are preparing to attack Venezuela. There's no evidence of this, but that doesn't matter. The Venezuelan government needs some way to distract Venezuelans from the collapse of their economy, and starting a war is a traditional short term solution. To that end, Venezuela will send most of its 92 new (well, slightly used) T-72 tanks to the Colombian border. This is not good tank country, there being lots of forests and hills, and few roads. Colombia has no tanks, but its aircraft have American anti-tank weapons that have proved very effective against T-72s.

Colombia is stronger than Venezueal, but I still think that if Venezuela struck first with a massed force of armor along whatever road net is there, they could punch into Colombia and grab some territory by sheer weight of numbers and material in the conflict area. If the international community compels a ceasefire before Colombia can use their superior troops to kick out the Venezuelan troops and smoke their brand new T-72s, Hugo could win a little border war.

But if Colombia resolves to smash up the Venezuelan incursion and we back them up diplomatically and with logistics and intelligence/recon, Hugo will get a bloody nose that simply adds to the economic problems.