Russia has reduced arms sales to China, finally realizing that China has just stolen Russian technology and perhaps finally feeling strong enough not to appease China by shipping arms and technology to Peking. But Russia needs a replacement for the China market and has to worry that India is edging to the West for arms purchases. So what is Russia to do?
Well, kill two birds with one stone:
Vietnam is buying billions of dollars in military equipment from Russia. In addition to hardware, Russia has agreed to provide trainers and technical assistance for modernizing the Vietnamese armed forces from top to bottom. The last time Vietnam was at war was in 1979, with China (it was a draw, but the outnumbered Vietnamese killed a lot of Chinese). Since then, the Vietnamese military has stagnated, while China has modernized its forces. Vietnam and China have been foes for centuries, as China long considered northern Vietnam a rebellious province of China.
Selling to Vietnam will both provide sales to bolster Russia's arms industry and serve to absorb some of China's new military power virtually extorted from a weak post-Soviet Russia.
I'm thinking that Taiwan should pursue arms from Russia as a hedge against losing American sales. I commend the Obama administration for not caving to Chinese pressure, but the pressure is bound to have an effect. Remember, Western Europe used to sell to Taiwan but now only America does. Even if we continue to sell to Taiwan, the scope of what we sell might decrease under pressure. Taiwan could use Russian submarines, especially.
And Russian sales would bolster another place considered by Peking to be a rebellious province, thus diverting Chinese attention from Russia's vulnerable Far East. And anything that bolsters Taiwanese defense capabilities will tend to make it easier for America and Japan to intervene to protect Taiwan and oppose China.
Russia does have history going for them with this policy. Remember that before World War II in the 1920s, the Russians actually supported the KMT against the CCP within China.
