Security forces clashed with opposition protesters gathered Wednesday for a memorial for Iran's most senior dissident cleric, beating men and women and firing tear gas, reformist Web sites reported.
The gathering at the main mosque in the central city of Isfahan, 200 miles (325 kilometers) southeast of Tehran, was meant to honor Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, the spiritual leader of the Iranian reformist movement who died Sunday.
The biggest question is which way will the situation tip if it reaches a tipping point? Will the regime resort to just enough violence to enrage the people into rising up? Will the regime use so much that elements of the regular armed forces and even Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) decide to stand with the protesters agaisnt the Basij and secret police?
Or will the regime calibrate their force enough to crush the protest movement yet not cross any lines that trigger other security forces to defend the people from the regime?
We sure could use a little luck to have some good cards dealt to us. It increasingly seems like we are talking ourselves into living with a nuclear-armed Iran under the mullahs. If the Israelis really can't knock down Iran's nuclear program (without using their own nukes in a preemptive strike), our only hope of avoiding a very bad decade is for the Iranian people to overthrow the mullah regime.
