All this appears to be part of a Chinese strategy of gradually absorbing Taiwan. To that end, China has long been receptive to investment by Taiwanese firms. This has led to hundreds of billions of dollars of Taiwanese money being invested in China. So many Taiwanese live, full or part time, to oversee these investments, that over five percent of the Taiwanese population is in China at any time. ... But Chinese companies hold on to a lot of cash, and the Chinese government can mobilize huge amounts of cash. So Taiwan has more to fear from a Chinese hostile buyout, than from a military invasion. A military operation would be bad for business, while a buyout would not.
A military invasion would be bad for business?
Why would Strategypage think that? Didn't Russia demonstrate that an invasion isn't so bad for business in the long run? There was short-term outrage and rumblings of official consequences over attacking Georgia. But in hardly any time at all, Russia was back in the good graces of the world. If Russia can pull that off, the much more economically consequential China can, too.
And while I'm at it, why would anyone assume that China cares that the conquest of Taiwan isn't worth a major hit on their economy?
Further, what if the Chinese economy is in free-fall for other reasons anyway? Wouldn't an invasion of Taiwan provide a nationalistic boost to China in those circumstances to distract from economic dislocation?
No doubt China would prefer to peacefully absorb Taiwan. I just don't assume China would not contemplate invasion under conditions that are entirely rational to China even if it makes no sense to us.
