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Saturday, December 19, 2009

Blood for Oil

This Iranian action to occupy Iraqi oil fields along the border should be a suicidal move, inviting us to use it as a pretext to destroy their regime:

Iraqi troops massed Saturday near an oil well on the border in a standoff with Iranian forces that seized control of the site in a sudden flare up of tension between the two uneasy neighbors.

The top U.S. diplomat in Iraq said Baghdad's speedy response to the border incursion showed that Iraq is "not going to be pushed around" by Iran.

The Iraqi troops and border guards were waiting for further orders at a staging ground about a kilometer from oil well No. 4 at the al-Fakkah oil field, said an Interior Ministry official at the site who was not authorized to talk to the media.

The Iranian military, meanwhile, denied they had violated Iraq's sovereignty since the oil well was part of Iranian territory according to a 1975 border agreement, in a statement carried by the Arabic language Iranian news station al-Alam.

The field is located about 200 miles (about 320 kilometers) southeast of Baghdad.

It was not clear, however, whether the Iranian forces who seized the well late Thursday night were still there.

In a small-scale action, I'd think the Iraqis would have the advantage in training and combat experience. In a large-scale border war, since Iraq would have American support, again Iraq should be able to trounce Iran.

And in between those extremes, even if the Iranians got the better of Iraq in a division- to corps-sized battle Where Iraq's new army has too little experience, I find it hard to imagine we wouldn't intervene to turn the tide.

So was this incident provoked by factions within Iran hoping to gain advantage? A belated attempt to scare away oil field investers?

Or the first concrete result of whatever evil Iran and their lap dog Syria discussed a week or so ago?

Still, it is a sad statement of our ability to deter Iran from aggression that the presence of our fleet, Air Force, and close to 200,000 troops in Iraq and Afghanistan did not keep Iran from provoking an incident.