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Monday, November 09, 2009

The Guns Will Not Go Quietly

Several years ago, as money dried up, the North Korean elites understood that they could not afford to buy the loyalty of the armed forces. So the elites settled on a strategy of regime survival that relied on nuclear weapons to deter foreign attempts at regime change and relied on the spy agencies to keep the people and military in line. Kooks, Spooks and Nukes, I called it.

But there is an obvious problem with this, as I wrote:

[If] the regime in Pyongyang is demoting the army, even if it is unable to take on the South Korean and American armies, it will still be strong enough to fight the regime secret police. Downgrading the army will likely set in a spiral of mistrust and resentment on the part of the North Korean leaders and the army. The North Korean army might begin to identify more with the oppressed people who along with them will be stuck with the lowest priority in resources. And with the South Korean army quite good, the North Koreans cannot afford to disband significant chunks of their army and visibly appear weaker. This will prevent the North Koreans from concentrating the fewer resources into keeping a smaller army happy.


The army is showing it isn't happy with their demotion in the pecking order when money and luxury goods for the generals are on the line:

The North Korean armed forces has solved its growing logistics (supply) problems by taking control of many industries that export goods (and thus earn hard currency to pay for military imports.) The military already owns many factories that produce military goods, but now they are going after those that make it possible to buy foreign goods. While various government ministries argue over who should control which industry or factory (all of them state-owned), the army has recently been settling the arguments by pointing out that it has more firepower than everyone else.


The North Korean army isn't siding with the people yet, but they are refusing to accept their impovershment to supply the spooks and nukes. Even poorer, the army does have a lot of guns and those guns can work wonders on those without very many guns. That's perhaps quite a liberating realization by the armed forces' generals.

How long before the army turns their guns on the kooks?