Islamist militants launched coordinated assaults on three police compounds in Pakistan's second largest city Thursday, the latest in a wave of attacks by insurgents bringing the war to the country's heartland ahead of an expected offensive against their Afghan border sanctuary.
The dramatic escalation in violence appears to be an attempt by the Taliban- and al-Qaida-led insurgency to seize the initiative from the army and deliver a warning to the U.S.-backed civilian government: Attack us in South Waziristan and we will fight back in your cities.
The jihadis believe that by striking the lowland population centers, they show Pakistanis the results of fighting the jihadis in the frontier areas. The jihadis believe this will change popular opinion to force the government to halt the pending offensive in South Waziristan.
Maybe that will work. Or maybe it will stiffen the resolve of the population to destroy the jihadis.
I personally think the jihadis would be better served by striking at government and military targets in the tribal areas. This would provide the publicity in the lowlands of jihadi strength without making the people in the cities feel the pain of attacks and perhaps want revenge.
Remember, jihadi exploits tend to resonate more with a public watching them against somebody else on TV rather than feeling the blast and seeing the blood-stained pavement weeks after the attack is over.
