We have focused on the Iranian situation not because it is significant in itself, but because it touches on a great number of other crucial international issues. It is now entangled in the Iraqi, Afghan, Israeli, Palestinian, Syrian and Lebanese issues, all of them high-stakes matters. It is entangled in Russian relations with Europe and the United States. It is entangled in U.S.-European relationships and with relationships within Europe. It touches on the U.S.-Chinese relationship. It even touches on U.S. relations with Venezuela and some other Latin American countries. It is becoming the Gordian knot of international relations.
I mentioned this aspect of our Iran problems:
And as I've noted, getting rid of the mullah regime in Iran really could cut the Gordian Knot and improve a lot of our problems related to Afghanistan. Add in problems like Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Gulf, and latin America--not to mention the nuclear issue--that would see improvement if the mullahs go. It starts to get confusing why getting rid of the mullahs rather than reaching out to them isn't our official policy.
And they think that we and the Israelis may be determined to use military power if necessary to stop Iran's nuclear drive:
The leaks this weekend have made clear that the United States and Israel have positioned themselves such that not much time remains. We have now moved from a view of Iran as a long-term threat to Iran as a much more immediate threat thanks to the Russians.
The least that can be said about this is that the Obama administration and Israel are trying to reshape the negotiations with the Iranians and Russians. The most that can be said is that the Americans and Israelis are preparing the public for war. Polls now indicate that more than 60 percent of the U.S. public now favors military action against Iran. From a political point of view, it has become easier for U.S. President Barack Obama to act than to not act. This, too, is being transmitted to the Iranians and Russians.
It is not clear to us that the Russians or Iranians are getting the message yet. They have convinced themselves that Obama is unlikely to act because he is weak at home and already has too many issues to juggle. This is a case where a reputation for being conciliatory actually increases the chances for war. But the leaks this weekend have strikingly limited the options and timelines of the United States and Israel.
Indeed, I've feared that we could have shooting because our president will stand up for America just as our enemies think he'll roll over (think Cuban Missile Crisis).
If we really are this close to concluding we have no choice but to strike Iran, it puts our seemingly desperate efforts to reach an understanding with Iran, including our abandonment of Iran's protesters and even efforts to document Iranian human rights violations, in a different light.
President Obama has done enough good things in foreign policy, that based on the Stratfor analysis above, I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in regard to Iran.
Making an extreme effort to persuade Iran even though it looks like retreat and surrender may be the only way our president can justify attacking Iran if it looks like Iran is determined to go nuclear.
And I did write that I think President Obama was left the tools to do the job if needed.
We'll see how the president is playing this. Is he really hoping to persuade Iran to change their ways? Or is he desperate to avoid the logic of war against Iran to destroy their nuclear infrastructure?
