From Nonsense to Likely in Only Four Years

Four years ago, I sparked some derision in the blogosphere with my (it would have been nice if the biggest blogger to attack my guess had at least gotten my name right...) argument that China was getting ready to invade Taiwan with a fast blitz designed to win before we could intervene (and part of China's strategy would be to delay our intervention by posing a threat to our fleet charging in).

I wrote that if I was in charge of China, I'd invade on the eve of the Peking Olympics. Obviously, China did not invade last year. Despite reports then of a crash-building program for their navy, that hasn't happened. Just as obviously, I'm not in charge of China. But my invasion scenario featured a missile barrage as a key door opener for the Chinese assault. I still stand by the broad outlines of that scenario.

Yet only a year after the time I stated that I'd try to conquer Taiwan (remember, I wasn't arguing that China had the capacity in 2005 but that they were quickly gaining the ability to invade), the Taiwanese are convinced China's missile arsenal could allow China to get ashore in a blitz of airborne and amphibious attackers:

There are various Chinese targeting strategies, and defensive moves the Taiwanese could take. In most cases, Taiwanese planners now believe that the Chinese could succeed. The barrage of missiles can do serious damage to Taiwanese air and naval forces, giving Chinese air and naval forces an opportunity to get ground forces ashore.

Taiwan appears ready to redress their defense deficiencies. Will they repair the damage done by a decade of standing still while China raced ahead in their capabilities before China decides to go?

Taiwan needs to take this threat seriously notwithstanding the mainland's charm offensive. Four years ago, a Chinese invasion was a "million-man swim." Today, Taiwan worries China could pull it off. What might the balance look like in four more years?