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Saturday, August 08, 2009

The Triumph of the Ten Year Rule

We are likely to be short of Navy fighters unless we spend a lot more money:

At a discussion this week on the Navy’s “fighter gap” at the Center for National Policy in Washington, one of the defense world’s most knowledgeable sources on all things Navy, CRS’ Ron O’Rourke, tried to put a definitive number on that “gap.” From the Navy’s public statements, O’Rourke calculated the number at anywhere between 125 and 243 aircraft, although some in industry contend it’s 300 or more. The peak of this shortfall is projected to occur around 2015; the Navy contends a shortage of strike-fighters could reduce the number of available carriers from 11 to seven around that time.


But no worries! The article says we'll just assume that we no longer need to fight two wars, nearly simultaneously; and instead we just need to fight one war and a relatively small contingency.

All is possible when you assume we won't have to fight a war in the medium term.