Well, we've gone from the 1,000,000-man swim to the 1,300-missile barrage rather quickly, haven't we?
Wargames and detailed analysis of possible Chinese attacks on Taiwan, indicate that the basic Chinese strategy might work, and do so within days. The key to such a blitz is the 1,300 Chinese ballistic and cruise missiles. Most of these are based on the coast opposite Taiwan (180 kilometers away across the Taiwan Straits). The Chinese missiles carry one ton or half ton conventional (high explosive or cluster bomb) warheads, and were expected to be used to try and cripple Taiwanese air force and navy, as well as attacking headquarters and communications targets. Almost simultaneously, China would try to invade with airborne and amphibious forces. Without those missiles, Taiwans's superior air and naval forces would make it very difficult, if not impossible, for the invasion force to cross the straits. The wargames play out various targeting strategies, and defensive moves the Taiwanese could take. In most cases, the Chinese succeed. The barrage of missiles do serious damage to Taiwanese air and naval forces, giving Chinese air and naval forces an opportunity to get ground forces ashore.
I think I noted this when Strategypage first put it out. But it bears repeating, as I did in early 2005 when I looked at what I thought China could do to conquer Taiwan. I thought ballistic missiles would play an important role in suppressing Taiwanese air power and air defenses, among other targets:
A ballistic missile barrage will hit Taiwanese airfields, naval bases, army barracks and vehicle parks, leadership targets, air defense and anti-ship missile batteries, and ammunition depots shortly thereafter. Perhaps the Chinese use electromagnetic pulse weapons to fry Taiwanese electronics. Perhaps the Chinese use chemical weapons. This is Chinese territory after all and so not an inter-state issue. The chemicals won't kill many but they will slow down the Taiwanese who will have to avoid contamination, decontaminate, and otherwise cope. It will also tend to show the Taiwanese that the Chinese are deadly serious. ...
A dribble of ballistic missiles will continue to hit Taiwanese airfields to disrupt operations and slow sortie rates with aircraft continuing to roll in regardless of losses. Even crappy 1960s-era aircraft can knock out modern fighters if they are on a runway refueling and rearming.
My broader point was that the balance was shifting. What had once been impossible was clearly becoming possible.
The China-Taiwan/US balance has tilted ominously in only four years, with analysts now seeing the day in the near future when China could take control of the air over Taiwan and take a shot at conquering the island before America can react and send sufficient forces.
Taiwan (and America) had best get a little sense of urgency in addressing this imbalance (tip to The View from Taiwan).
UPDATE: Here's the actual RAND report. Keep in mind that the report doesn't actually say China could successfully invade and conquer Taiwan under their scenario--just that China would likely gain air superiority over the strait using their missiles in an opening salvo. Which is quite helpful to invading, of course.
But stopping the conventional invasion would require someone to hit the Chinese amphibious and commercial shipping. Of course, they do seem to think that a bolt from the blue with decapitation strike as I have suggested could also have a shot at working.
I've just skimmed through the actual report so far, but it doesn't seem to address what I've mentioned as a possibility: that of the Chinese trying the Egyptian strategy of 1973, which just aimed to get across the Suez Canal and survive there.
What if the Chinese just want a foothold on Taiwan? How would we get them off if they came ashore and aimed to create a "liberated zone" as a step toward absorbing all the island?
At some point we will need to get off the treadmill of trying to buy time for us to intervene with sufficient force deployed from far away and either put a tripwire force on Taiwan or seek to undermine China and end the threat by going on offense. Or, as some (cough, CATO, cough) will argue, abandon Taiwan to the tender mercies of Peking.
