"I have made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and is not interfering in Iran's affairs," Obama said. "But we must also bear witness to the courage and dignity of the Iranian people, and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place."
Obama noted the killing of a young woman, Neda Agha Soltan, whose apparent shooting death was captured on video and circulated worldwide.
"We have seen courageous women stand up to brutality and threats, and we have experienced the searing image of a woman bleeding to death on the streets," Obama said. "While this loss is raw and painful, we also know this: Those who stand up for justice are always on the right side of history."
Asked if Iran will face consequences for how it has acted, Obama said the world is watching and Iran's handling of dissent "will help shape the tone not only for Iran's future but also its relationship to other countries."
This makes it more difficult for his defenders to argue his earlier soft response was appropriate.
And given that it does not appear that the protesters are gaining momentum in either building the breadth of their opposition or causing cracks in the leadership, this ramping up of rhetoric is interesting.
Does the president now believe hopes for talks on nuclear issues with Iran are pointless so tougher language won't hurt things practically speaking?
Does the president have information indicating that the unrest is more serious than the lack of numbers on the streets of Iran indicate?
Does the president worry that his failure to speak up will harm his domestic agenda?
Or, more generously, is the president getting information indicating that it really wouldn't hurt the protest movement to hear support from him? Is he now doing what he would have liked to do all along but for his worry about harming the protesters?
I haven't jumped into this issue with predictions, with both a sense of humility that I don't know enough to predict and a sense that events are made and not predicted. Much depends on the actions of Iranians--the protesters, regime, security forces, the non-regime mullahs, and the masses of ordinary people--as well as America and other foreign countries. Ledeen puts it well:
Those who think they can foresee the outcome of this revolutionary war have greater confidence in their prophetic powers than I. I don’t think Mousavi or Khamenei has any such confidence; they are fighting it out, as they must. Victory or defeat can come about slowly or rapidly, the result of cunning, courage or accident, and most likely a combination of all three. One thing seems certain: the Iranian people were right when they realized that nobody in the outside world would help them. They’re on their own.
I still have no idea what will happen, though right now I lean to the fizzle side. I'm just saying that if the protests are fizzling, this is an odd moment to speak out in favor of the protesters--or a really cynical ploy to get in a good word before the protesters are suppressed and rounded up by the regime.
And even if President Obama's words of support are just a cynical ploy, it is still an action by America. And it could affect decisions that Iranians make in the days and weeks ahead that will determine whether the protests fizzle or explode.
