The military operations undertaken by Pakistani forces as well as their clear material support for the actions of local anti-Taliban militias represent a turning point in the Pakistani approach to Islamic extremism. Similarly, the drone attacks perpetrated by American forces against Islamist positions deep in the tribal provinces of Pakistan, have demonstrated a new American resolve to pursue and kill individual Islamist commanders. Taken together, recent Pakistani and American military actions have tightened the noose around Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in their tribal strongholds.
I'm pleasantly surprised that the Pakistanis have persisted in their offensive against the jihadis. It seems that American bribes (er, foreign aid) have been timed well with public opinion shifts against the advances of the tribal jihadis. The public and government see the jihadis as a threat to Pakistan.
This leads to another surprise (to me). I expected our Predator strikes to decline this year. I worried that without effective support on the ground, such strikes would be too ineffective in isolation to do any good and would only anger Pakistanis. But we're still striking and the strikes are working. Of course, I'm wrong based on my assumption that the Pakistanis would not break their pattern of ineffective campaigns against the jihadis. Our strikes are being complemented by ground operations by the Pakistani security forces.
So al Qaeda members are starting to flee. Will bin Laden follow, soon, as (if?) the Pakistani security forces expand their presence into tribal areas? At what point is the flight of al Qaeda members represent the advance guard preparing the way for bin Laden?
And will our forces in the Horn be ready to fight any al Qaeda attempting to set up a base in Somalia? Just as our victory in Iraq led to al Qaeda to shift focus to Pakistan, will Pakistan's victories over their domestic jihadis compel al Qaeda to flee to Somalia? I'm assuming that they won't be foolish enough to flee to Afghanistan just as our surge has kicked in, to be defeated by a sizable American army again.
And will this result in a larger American-led operation on the ground in Somalia in response? Perhaps formally in response to pirate bases to provide cover for countries like Egypt to participate?
I'm sure our Left would howl at another theater of war--but at least they'd be able to fully transform the Afghan campaign into the "bad war" that "distracts us" from the "real war" against al Qaeda in Somalia!
