The Iranians do not expect any help from the outside world. Bush did not help them, to his shame, and nobody thinks Obama would lift a finger for Iranian dissidents. They’re on their own, just as the Lebanese voters were a few days ago. I think many Lebanese decided that they’d better take a stand against Hezbollah before all hope for freedom was lost. Many Iranians may well reason the same way.
If violence breaks out, what will the West do? Probably nothing, except express concern, and call for sweet reasonableness. Good luck with that! What should the West do? Support freedom in Iran. Nothing would so transform the region as a free government, dedicated to good relations with the West. Such a government would end the profligate spending on terrorism and devote the country’s resources to domestic concerns. Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Taliban, and the other jihadis, would be dramatically weakened. Syria’s Bashar Assad would suddenly find himself without his big brother in Tehran. If you want to dream of peace in the Middle East, a free Iran is at the heart of your Utopia.
As rigged as they are, could the elections for even flawed and screened candidates lead to real change outside the ballot box?
And as I've noted, getting rid of the mullah regime in Iran really could cut the Gordian Knot and improve a lot of our problems related to Afghanistan. Add in problems like Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Afghanistan, the Gulf, and latin America--not to mention the nuclear issue--that would see improvement if the mullahs go. It starts to get confusing why getting rid of the mullahs rather than reaching out to them isn't our official policy.
I kept hoping that President Bush would attempt to overthrow the mullahs during his tenure, but those hopes were dashed. The loyal opposition was too rabid and perhaps I over-estimated the capabilities of the CIA to engineer a revolt among people who mostly think well of us.
And even if a plan was passed on to President Obama, would our president carry out such a plan if the opportunity presented itself? And if he did, would he pull a Bay of Pigs stunt by starting the operation and then pulling the rug out from underneath our friends?
Still, I'd be more than happy if President Obama gets lucky enough to benefit from a good event completely outside our control and influence.
