President Barack Obama's push to reset U.S.-Russian relations took a huge stride when he signaled the Kremlin he might forgo an anti-missile system in Eastern Europe if Moscow uses its clout with a troublesome Iran and its nuclear ambitions.
This is a load of wishful thinking. Having a nuclear-armed Iran as a thorn in our side brings too much joy to Kremlin parties for the Russians to abandon that prospect.
The problem is, only we can install an anti-missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic. And once we agree not to do that, it won't get built. And just as bad, a tangible symbol of our commitment to their freedom from Russian domination withers.
Russia, on the other hand, can only slow and not stop Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons. Iran has other options for getting the technology and resources. How will we know that Russia isn't quietly enabling others to provide what Russia agrees not to provide in order to get our missile shield cancelled?
Russia wants it all. And with the big-brained, nuanced thinkers in charge of our foreign policy now, I wouldn't bet against the Russians on this issue.
God almighty, it's amateur hour over here.
UPDATE: The Poles, and the Czechs especially, are worried about our proposed deal with Russia:
Both the Czech Republic, which is to be the host of a high-tech radar facility, and Poland, the planned site of 10 interceptor missiles, see the defense system as a guarantee of extra protection from the United States, above and beyond the mutual aid that NATO members can demand of allies if they are attacked.
Both countries have strong memories of Soviet domination.
Nikola Hynek, a defense expert at the Institute of International Relations in Prague, noted that without the radar system, there would be no US soldiers in his country. "The government here is becoming very anxious," he said.
It's almost as if President Obama authorized a unilateral diplomatic move without consulting our actual allies involved. In a new age of multilateral, smart diplomacy, I know this interpretation can't be correct, right?
UPDATE: Stratfor thinks that Russia really does want it all:
For the Russians, a quid pro quo on BMD and Iran is simply unacceptable. It isn’t because the Russians have heightened sensibilities — they are the masters of linking otherwise unrelated topics together for discussion and action — but because they are thinking much bigger these days. They want a grand bargain with the Americans, and they want it now.
I think the Stratfor analysis overstates the weakness of our ground power relative to Russia's and so over-estimates Russia's leverage. But with the Russians up against our so-called "smart diplomacy," the Russians probably have a shot.
