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Monday, March 16, 2009

A Symptom of the Problem

Our supply line to Afghanistan through Pakistan was attacked again:

Up to 50 militants attacked a terminal for trucks carrying supplies to U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan early Monday, in the second such assault in northwest Pakistan in two days.


Not that these attacks are in themselves terribly significant:

U.S. and NATO officials insist the attacks have little impact on their operations, but are looking at ways to bring more supplies into Afghanistan through Central Asia.


True. I've said as much in the past. But if the occasional attacks have little impact themselves, the problem they represent is potentially of decisive impact. If not, why look for alternative supply lines--through Russia and Iran?

The attacks are important because they hint of the instability in Pakistan that could lead to the complete cut off of this vital line of supply. The state could collapse. Or the government might seek to avoid collapse by seeking jihadi support through a policy that ends Pakistan's alliance with America.

We'd best be thinking hard about the fate of all those new troops in Afghanistan.