Toe Hold

Russia is eager to maintain a toe-hold on the Black Sea, and their Georgia adventure last August may have provide them with the momentum to do that, even as it alienates non-ethnic Russians in Ukraine (from my Jane's email updates):

Georgia's breakaway region of Abkhazia expects to sign a deal within the next few months to allow Russia to establish a naval base and an airbase on its territory, Kristian Bzhania, spokesman for Abkhazian separatist leader Sergei Bagapsh, said on 29 January. Russia needs a base in the Black Sea as its lease of the Ukrainian port of Sevastopol expires in 2017 and Kiev has made clear it does not want to renew it[.]

Let this be a lesson to those parts of the former Soviet Union that are flirting with Russia: Russia hasn't forgotten that it once owned you.

And if given half a chance, they'll park themselves on your land and set up shop for good.