Al-Maliki's supporters appeared to hold the lead in many areas of the south, including the key city of Basra and the Shiite spiritual center of Najaf, according to Iraq's private Al-Sharqiya television. The trend was supported by voter comments in Basra and other areas.
Many voters praised last year's government-backed crackdown that broke the Shiite militia control in Basra and other areas.
"Al-Maliki ended the militiamen's reign of terror," said Faisal Hamadi, 58, after voting in Basra. "For this he deserves our vote."
Back in the spring of 2008, I was eager for the government to crack down on the Mahdi Army before these elections so that these thugs wouldn't be in a position to intimidate voters and deliver the provincial governments to Sadr's control (and Iran's heavy influence).
Maliki is gaining against allied religious-leaning thought, too:
Gains by al-Maliki's allies would come directly at the expense of the biggest Shiite party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, which is a senior partner in the government but has hinted it could make a bid to take the leadership in national elections later this year.
The Supreme Council has a strong base among Shiite religious authorities — who are seen with suspicion by some Iraqis because of perceived ties to neighboring Iran and claims they fueled sectarian violence.
And Sunni Arabs are voting this time as well. And with peaceful voting, they will see the value of rejecting al Qaeda in Iraq terror and other Sunni Arab resistance/terror.
It will be a couple more days before we see more official results. But it is a relief to see the Shias turning away from Iranian influence or overt Shia religious rule.
We need to stay in Iraq to keep elections going. We need to entrench the habit of voting as a means to resolve political disputes. And we need to make sure that winning elections isn't an excuse for the winners to just say "I won" and run roughshod over the losers. Winners with 51% must not see their win as the ability to steal everything from the losing 49% and rig the system for the benefit of the winners at the expense of the losers. Too often in the Third World, that's all elections do.
Rule of law must prevail if the guns are to be kept out of the political system.
Keep your fingers crossed, but so far so good.
