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Saturday, January 03, 2009

Into Gaza. But How Far?

Israel has sent troops into Gaza:

Israeli tanks and infantry entered Gaza after nightfall Saturday, launching a ground offensive that the military said would be a "lengthy operation" in a widening war on Gaza's Hamas rulers.

Israeli security officials said the operation is likely to go on for several days, but that the objective is not to reoccupy Gaza. The depth and intensity will also depend on parallel diplomatic efforts, the officials on condition of anonymity in line with military regulations.

"We have many, many targets," Israeli military spokeswoman Maj. Avital Leibovich told CNN, adding that Hamas has been digging smuggling tunnels and other facilities. "To my estimation, it will be a lengthy operation," she said.

"The goal is to try and take over some of the those launching areas that were responsible for the many launches, thousands of launches in fact, toward Israeli civilians," she said. "The civilians are not our target. We are looking only after militants. Hamas militants."

Heavy gun battles were reported as Israeli tanks and infantry soldiers entered Gaza after dark. The forces stayed close to the border area, witnesses said. Heavy artillery fire hit east of Gaza City in areas where Hamas fighters were deployed.


My impression is that Israel has waited too long to take maximum advantage of the aerial campaign. By yesterday the Israelis were bombing nothing much of real value as far as influencing a ground fight. Yet Hamas did not give in, so Israel looks for what to do next. Not that this means the Israelis are doomed. It means it will be more costly to invade.

And are the reports of shallow penetrations an accurate assessment of what the Israeli army will do? That may depend on whether estimates of 10,000 Israeli troops massed at the border are accurate. This suggests just two brigades going into Gaza, with other support troops remaining inside Israel. That isn't much to really scour the place. I'd think you'd want up to 30,000 to really blanket the place so you can find and destroy what is hidden before you want to get out. With too few troops, Hamas could hide a lot and count on international pressure to get the Israelis to leave before they can do anything of value.

Of course, more troops could be arriving. Israel has ordered the mobilization of several thousand reservists. They could be sent into Gaza or used to backfill active units sent into Gaza. Maybe Israel really has learned a lesson since 2006, as I assumed.

Or maybe the Israelis are just going through the motions of war. The enemy keeps trying to kill them so their leaders feel duty bound to do something. So they bomb Hamas. And then they send in troops. Which is what war looks like, right?

I just don't get the impression yet that the Israeli leadership is serious about being in a war and winning it.

The next part of war in the Middle East is the ceasefire. We shall see if the Israelis punch their ground phase ticket as quickly as they can justify that they made a ground effort, and then get on to ending the war with disapproving Europeans looking on. Maybe Israel learned nothing from the 2006 Hezbollah War after all.

UPDATE: I really hate to second guess the Israelis in matters of war, but after the 2006 Hezbollah War when I was right to question just what the heck the Israelis are thinking, I don't really give the Israelis the benefit of the doubt on making good military decisions. This seems just idiotic:

Israeli leaders said the operation, known as Cast Lead, was meant to quell militant rocket and mortar fire on southern Israel. They said it would not end quickly but that the objective was not to reoccupy Gaza or topple Hamas. The depth and intensity will depend in part on parallel diplomatic efforts that so far haven't yielded a truce proposal acceptable to Israel, the officials said.


So the Israelis say the objective isn't to topple Hamas or occupy Gaza even temporarily. The invasion is simply for the purpose of getting a better ceasefire.

What a load of idiocy. The Israelis had best have military objectives more precise than fighting until they can get an acceptable truce.

The article doesn't make it seem like Hamas is eager to quit now:

"You entered like rats," Hamas spokesman Ismail Radwan told Israeli soldiers in a statement on Hamas' Al Aqsa TV, broadcast shortly after the start of the invasion. "Your entry to Gaza won't be easy. Gaza will be a graveyard for you, God willing," he said.

"Gaza will not be paved with flowers for you. It will be paved with fire and hell," Hamas warned Israeli forces.


I think the Israelis could--if ordered to by their leaders--rip apart Hamas in urban combat. But granting Hamas the benefit of the doubt, shouldn't Hamas be upset with all those calling for an immediate ceasefire?

Arab nations demanded Saturday that the United Nations Security Council call for an immediate cease-fire following Israel's launch of a ground offensive in Gaza, a view echoed by Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.


I'm very impressed that Arab nations would be so eager to rescue Israeli troops from fire and hell.

We shall see if Israel has an objective in their war. I assumed Israel had learned lessons from Lebanon in 2006. Perhaps they have. Perhaps not.