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Monday, December 01, 2008

Cold Sweat

There has still been no international fallout from the Mumbai massacre. It might only be the suspension of Pakistan's military campaign in the frontier tribal areas. Or it might be conventional war with India. It could be a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan.

The Indians are furious, assuming Pakistan's hand is behind this attack.

And the Pakistanis are nervous, worried about what India might do.

Pakistan threatened to redeploy troops from the Afghan border to the plains facing India, as charges escalated that terrorists who attacked Bombay planned and trained on Pakistani soil.

Pakistan continued to deny the charges and President Bush sought to defuse tensions, pledging U.S. help in the investigation during a telephone call to Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.


We should be at least grateful that Pakistan knows they'd need to see an Indian build up on their border as a prelude to invasion or attack.

Think about how everyone would be acting if India's notional Cold Start doctrine was operational across their military, making an Indian bolt-from-the-blue strike possible, and not just a doctrine still in its infancy.

The crisis isn't over and I have little confidence that we can ride this out without additional harm.

I'm just hoping that the worst case scenario doesn't play out.