We kind of assume he is there. And we keep looking from afar.
Why do we assume this? I'd think that after seven years we'd have gotten a solid lead. Maybe taken a shot even if we missed. But apparently we've had nothing.
So what if Osama is long gone from Pakistan? Doesn't that make far more sense than assuming that a tall Arab has managed to disguise himself and move around inside Pakistan?
Maybe he really is dead.
Maybe he's in Iran.
Heck, maybe he's in Russia. Maybe the Russians decided to store Osama away in case they need him.
These days I wouldn't put anything past those paranoid freaks.
That's a fanciful speculation, I admit. But the point is, why assume Osama is successfully hiding inside Pakistan's tribal areas?
UPDATE: I meant to link to this article as prompting my speculation:
Frustrated by repeated dead ends in the search for Osama bin Laden, U.S. and Pakistani officials said they are questioning long-held assumptions about their strategy and are shifting tactics to intensify the use of the unmanned but lethal Predator drone spy plane in the mountains of western Pakistan. ...
Today, seven years after he masterminded the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, bin Laden is believed to wear disguises routinely and takes extreme care to avoid electronic communications, relying on human couriers to pass messages, officials said.
The article speaks of critical resources being denied to the hunt, but the reaction of Pakistan to our slightly more aggressive posture in the border region should show that this argument is and always has been ridiculous.
Further, we really don't know if bin Laden is in the area. We "believe" he is.
I say we double the reward for Osama to $50 million. And then announce the reward will drop $5 million on the first of every month until it reaches $5 million. Then it will remain there. Oh, and we'll announce that the reward is only available for his corpse.
We'd get a burst of interest by associates of bin Laden in cashing in as well as a deadline for the big pay off. And we'd reduce his stature by lowering the reward.
