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Sunday, September 14, 2008

Losing in Afghanistan?

Violence is up in Afghanistan and growing numbers of people are saying we are losing there. Admiral Mullen says we are not winning.

I don't see that we are losing. Yes, violence is up. Yes, the enemy has gained sanctuaries inside Pakistan from which they strike us in Afghanistan. That is our real problem and Admiral Mullen recognizes this:

Mullen said he was "looking at a new, more comprehensive strategy for the region" that would cover both sides of the border, including Pakistan's tribal areas.

"These two nations are inextricably linked in a common insurgency that crosses the border between them," Mullen said.

"We can hunt down and kill extremists as they cross over the border from Pakistan ... but until we work more closely with the Pakistani government to eliminate the safe havens from which they operate, the enemy will only keep coming."


Yeah, for about a year I've written that we face a Taliban campaign that encompasses Afghanistan and Pakistan, and not an Afghanistan campaign.

Remember, too, that Afghan forces are stronger and our forces are stronger. We're certainly not about to knock them down as long as the enemy has the Pakistan sanctuary. But the enemy isn't about to knock off the Afghan government, either. It is a higher level of stalemate, but if we can build up Afghanistan's government, economy, and military, eventually it will be able to fight the enemy.

So what is that "more comprehensive" strategy? It can't just be more Predator strikes in Pakistan:

The attacks have sparked an outcry from Pakistani leaders and may have complicated the challenges facing newly elected Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari.


Given the Pakistani opposition to even limited American operations in Pakistan, will we directly cultivate the Pakistani tribes to wage what I've called a Lexington Campaign?

If not this, what will we be able to do?