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Sunday, June 01, 2008

Duality

Mark Steyn isn't confident that Europe can escape the iron logic of demographics that will put Moslems in the majority if present trends continue--and will put young Moslems in the majority before that.

I tend to think Europe will go postal on their Moslem underclass, applying Baklan solutons of expulsion or mass murder to defend their society, if they feel under attack by this demographic surge.

Perhaps it won't be so simple a choice.

Perhaps Europeans will feel secure in some areas even as radicalized Moslems within Europe carve out their enclaves and influence the wider societies and governments that the eroding European majority will still dominate. Perhaps Europeans will feel secure enough to enjoy their Western pleasures in enough places to never feel their backs up against the wall. And perhaps Moslem numbers won't be able to penetrate the governing and security institutions enough to dominate them. A less democratic European Union may actually help to hold off the demographic changes that Steyn sees engulfing Europe.

Perhaps Lebanon is the model for a future Europe:

The extremes of the Middle East — the Western-style consumerism exemplified by Dubai's skyscrapers and the cult of holy war that flourishes in Iraq and the Gaza Strip — collide head-on in Lebanon.

Symbols of the two visions are easy to find.

Beirut's new central district, conceived by Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister assassinated in 2005, was built as a symbol of post-civil war renewal. Where ruins once stood, designer stores and luxury homes occupy sandstone and limestone buildings with carved facades and balconies. A Porsche dealership is on the waterfront.

Not far from this opulence, Hezbollah keeps thousands of rockets in Shiite Muslim areas stretching from the northern Bekaa valley to the south near archenemy Israel. Its fighters seized parts of Beirut from pro-government gunmen earlier this month, forcing the government to grant veto power to Hezbollah and its allies.

Duality is the essence of Lebanon. Yes, it is a breeding ground for Islamic militants and proxy battleground for regional conflict, but it is also a sun-splashed destination for tourists and tycoons. Its European flavor, a legacy of French colonial administration, and the bullet-pocked shells of old buildings add to the flair.


Not that this is a great future model for Europe. But it may be the more realistic middle path between Eurabia and the Bosnia solution. The Europeans won't fight if they don't feel directly threatened. And the radical Moslems won't feel they can impose their views on the Europeans and less radical Moslems. Like in Lebanon:

Lebanon has 18 sects, including Muslims, Christians and Druse, and Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has said he has no plans to try to impose Islamic law on such a diverse country.

A woman in a bikini beside the yacht club's pool wondered about Hezbollah's plans.

"We are living in different worlds," said the woman, who did not want to be identified because her husband works in the delicate arena of politics. "As long as we can do whatever we want and don't have restrictions, it's OK. We respect them, but we don't want them to change the country into a new Iran. There are a lot of question marks for the future."


Steyn may still be right. But it might take much longer for radicalized Moslems to capture significant part of Europe.

Still, it is sad to contemplate which of Europe's old buildings will be bullet-pocked shells to remind the waning Europeans of the conflict within their society.

UPDATE: While Clinton supporters may think they are facing sexism now, if her "tolerant" supporters in other areas ignore the radicalized Moslems, they will find out what sexism is, as Steyn writes:

Enlightened progressives take it for granted that social progress is like technological progress – that women's rights are like the internal combustion engine or the jet airplane: once invented they can't be uninvented.

But that's a careless assumption. There was a small, nothing story out of Toronto this week – the York University Federation of Students wants a campuswide ban on any pro-life student clubs. Henceforth, students would be permitted to debate abortion only "within a pro-choice realm," as the vice-president Gilary Massa put it.

Nothing unusual there. A distressing number of student groups are inimical to free speech these days. But then I saw a picture of the gung-ho abortion absolutist: Gilary Massa is a young Muslim woman covered in a hijab.

On such internal contradictions is the future being built. By "The Return of Patriarchy," Philip Longman doesn't mean 1950s sitcom dads. No doubt Western feminists will be relieved to hear that.


Radical Moslems don't have to take over to ruin our Western society. Creating internal contradictions let alone a duality will be bad enough.

And Steyn is the one going on show trial tomorrow in Canada?