We can turn back the current wave of jihad as past waves have been blunted without this transformation. But this means that another wave will hit our shores again one day, as this wave is yet another wave in a long history of jihadi surges directed at the West. But the next wave of jihadis might have weapons of mass destruction as part of the attacks. We would be wise to make this the last jihad.
President Bush warns the Arab autocrats that business as usual is no way to run their countries:
"Too often in the Middle East, politics has consisted of one leader in power and the opposition in jail," Bush said in a speech to 1,500 global policymakers and business leaders at this Red Sea beach resort. That was a clear reference to host Egypt, where main secular opposition figure Ayman Nour has been jailed and President Hosni Mubarak has led an authoritarian government since 1981.
"America is deeply concerned about the plight of political prisoners in this region, as well as democratic activists who are intimidated or repressed, newspapers and civil society organizations that are shut down and dissidents whose voices are stifled," Bush said.
"I call on all nations in this region to release their prisoners of conscience, open up their political debate and trust their people to chart their future," Bush said.
I know that many here just want us to deal with the autocrats as long as they can provide stability. But with the jihadi impulse still strong enough to inspire recruits for bin Laden, that option is gone. That option is gone because bin Laden won't let the autocrats carry on with business as usual:
Bin Laden said Muslims should ignore the Islamic prohibition against raising arms against fellow Muslims, claiming it was legitimate to rise up against leaders who are not governing according to Islamic law. Those leaders, he said, came to power "either by a military coup or with backing from foreign forces."
American critics of our foreign policy are 180 degrees wrong when they charge that President Bush insists that countries are either with us or against us. In truth, it is bin Laden who insists Arab people must be either with him and his jihad or against him. He kills Sunni Arabs who fail to enlist enthusiastically as readily as he kills Westerners. Arab rulers are happy to work with this logic, arguing that they will keep the jihadis at bay but at the price of total control of the societies and governments of the Arab world.
We, by contrast, accept help freely given against the terrorists, and offer Arab people an alternative to a constant fight with jihadis battling over the allegiance of these citizens unhappy with their leaders and the societies they live in that keep them in poverty while much of the rest of the world marches forward.
Given this battle going on, explain to me again how unimportant it is to plant democracy in Iraq and provide the Arab people with an example of how to escape the poor choices that the autocrats and bin Laden give them. And if we can break the grip of despair that these choices inspire, maybe we can end the cycles of jihad before nuclear weapons become simple enough for private entities to build and use--on us.
UPDATE: Wretchard writes about the waves of jihad and how fashion decisions may demonstrate our coming victory over the current wave. This is good. But this doesn't mean the war is over.
Strategypage writes about the problems in the Arab Moslem world that show why we can't just rest our laurels on a mere tactical victory over the current wave. Given time, these problems left unsolved will generate a new wave. And what tools will our forward-looking society and economy provide another generation of jihadis that will be used to kill us in large numbers?
We are not doomed to meeting another more dangerous wave of jihadis in a couple generations once the current wave is defeated. The success of Moslems and Arabs in American society shows how the Arab Moslem world can thrive if we can break the stifling hold that Middle Eastern Moslem society has on the talented individuals who emerge despite the handicaps.
