Bush told the leaders about the expected troop boost when they discussed fghanistan at a summit in the Romanian capital Bucharest on Thursday, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said.
"The president indicated that he expected in 2009 that the United States would make a significant additional contribution," Gates told reporters on his plane on Friday as he flew from the summit to the Gulf state of Oman.
With a current force of 42 Army brigades in the active component and 9 Marine regimental combat teams, we could sustain just under 15 brigades in the field at one time and give them two years off after one year in combat. You could add another 3.5 National Guard brigades per year (assuming 4-5 brigades available serving 9 months in the field during a year) and support just over 18 brigades in the field per year.
At 48 active Army brigades in a couple years or so, we could sustain 20 brigades in the field with a 2:1 home time ratio.
After the surge forces come home we'll have 15 brigades in Iraq and 2 in Afghanistan. Add another in South Korea that doesn't seem to be in the rotation pool. So to reinforce Afghanistan next year we have to either assume Guard brigades are mobilized, reductions in Iraq beyond the surge fade, or shorter dwell times compared to deployment time.
I don't think there is any question that we can reduce tours to 12 months as things are going.
And if I have to guess, I'd think that prior to the election we'll drop no lower than 14 in Iraq even if we assess we can go lower. We'll do this just in case the new president in January 2009 is determined to pull out of Iraq as fast as possible. Then we'll have at least some cushion of force levels to insulate the war effort from bad decisions made for political reasons only.
Just a further guess, but I'd bet we see a drawdown in Anbar of a Marine regimental combat team with the Army units part of the regiment kept in Anbar and reassigned to an Army brigade that stretches its AOR west from the Baghdad region to the Ramadi/Fallujah area; while the core of Marines in the withdrawn regiment shift to Afghanistan as an all-Marine force.
I remain wary of putting too many troops into Afghanistan given that our lines of supply must go through Russia to the north or Pakistan to the south.
