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Monday, February 25, 2008

Support Europe

The Russians and Serbs are edging closer to cooperation on the Kosovo declaration of independence. The next Russian president and front man for Putin's continued rule, Dmitry Medvedev, backs Serbia:

We noticed that the independence declaration by Kosovo truly complicated the situation in the region, in southeastern Europe, and impacts on all other regions and countries" with territorial problems, Medvedev said.

"We have made a deal to coordinate together our efforts in order to get out of this complicated situation," he added after talks with nationalist Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica and pro-Western President Boris Tadic.

Kosovo's Albanian-majority parliament unilaterally declared independence from Serbia on February 17.


I still don't know whether this will blow over after a period of bluster or whether the Russians really want to inject themselves into the region to confront the West over Kosovo.

Logic would hold that Russia's bluster against the West is all show to justify repression at home. NATO is no threat to Russia and the Russian leaders know it.

On the other hand, they may be starting to believe their own rhetoric and may be pushed along by popular opinion that might insist their leaders back up their words of support.

If the Russians really do send in a regiment of infantry to really back the Serbs, I think we should stay in the background. The Europeans don't want to help much in Iraq or Afghanistan so we would be justified in telling them to take the lead in Kosovo.

The Europeans can cobble together a force to face down Russia in the Balkans. The Europeans even have enough nukes to deter the Russians from rattling nuclear sabres too much. I personally think we should have insisted the Europeans take care of their own region when they begged us to take care of the Kosovo problem back in 1999.

And on the other hand, will Russia feel the heady glory of confronting Europe without our forces standing in the front row? And losing to such an opponent might be too humiliating for Russia to risk. Confronting America (when we have no intention of restarting the Cold War) and even having to back down in the face of our power isn't the same sort of humiliation, eh? Heck, put a Belgian general in charge of the frontline NATO forces in Kosovo.

Of course, the difference from the European notion of supporting us is that we will not snipe at the Europeans. We will provide logistics and air support, too, as needed. Still, the Europeans should take the lead in contributing ground forces should it become necessary to deter the Serbs and their Russian patrons from pushing this crisis into bad territory with a move to reclaim Serb-inhabited areas of Kosovo to unite with Serbia.

We are allies. But fair is fair. Let the Europeans pick up the pieces here. We've already done a lot in the areas because the Europeans are too weak. Time for the Europeans to act like grown up nations when the bad guys with guns show up.