Approximately 60 percent of attacks now occur in the north. We will not allow al Qaeda and other extremists to take sanctuary in any part of the country. However, Phantom Phoenix is not limited to the north. It integrates operations from across the country. We are not leaving safe areas or holes. Equally important is the fact that we will not give up gains already achieved by the coalition.
In the last week of operations, the overall number of attacks nationwide remained down and below the average of the past three months.
We have seen a rise in coalition and civilian casualties since last month; however, Iraqi security force casualties have been reduced. We are also increasingly finding and clearing improvised explosive devices. This is undoubtedly due to the improved cooperation from Iraqi citizens, who continue to forcefully reject extremism.
The security situation today is about the same as we experienced statistically in early 2005. Weekly attacks in the Baghdad security districts for the past 15 weeks matched the levels last seen consistently during mid-2005. Improvised explosive device incidents increased last week, but remained below the long-term average for the 23rd week in a row. The IED found-and-cleared rate was 62 percent, the highest in nearly four years. Iraq-wide, weekly casualties decreased by 3 percent last week, thereby continuing to remain below the long-term average for the 21st week in a row.
The fight against al Qaeda is shifting north. But the enemy is weaker and not just being moved around to kill our forces and Iraqis at the same level as in the past. Strategypage sums it up:
Al Qaeda has largely been pushed out of the cities. This means it's harder to hide, and harder to raise money. Al Qaeda has financed itself partly via criminal activities (kidnapping, extortion, black market, theft, whatever). There are fewer such opportunities out in the countryside, and the bad guys are easier to find. Strangers stand out more easily. That brings smart bombs, which have been used more frequently, with devastating effect, since the terrorists fled to the countryside.
Many of the Iraqi al Qaeda operatives have been showing up in Pakistan.
The fight against al Qaeda is shifting out of Iraq, too. Clearly, Iran and Syria aren't eager to host these operatives fleeing Iraq, as I figured. The question is will Iran and Syria facilitate the movement of the cannon fodder to Pakistan or just the key leaders? Would the thugs in Damascus and Tehran prefer us to just kill the rabble jihadis inside Iraq and simply get them out of the way?
