Could Iran be building an atomic bomb? When the US released a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) late last year, it seemed as though the danger of a mullah-bomb had passed. The report claimed to have information indicating that Tehran mothballed its nuclear weapons program as early as autumn 2003. The paper also said that it was "very unlikely" that Iran would have enough highly
enriched uranium -- the primary ingredient in atomic bombs -- by 2009 to produce such a weapon. Rather, the NIE indicated "Iran probably would be technically capable of producing enough (highly enriched uranium) for a weapon sometime during the 2010-2015 timeframe."
It didn't take long for experts to question the report's conclusion that Tehran was no longer interested in building the bomb. And now, a new computer simulation undertaken by European Union experts indicates that the NIE's time estimates might be dangerously inaccurate as well -- and that Iran might have enough fuel for a bomb much earlier than was previously thought.
To be fair, the NIE didn't actually say that Iran couldn't build a nuclear bomb soon. It was only spun that way by leaking intelligence employees talking to sympathetic reporters and read by a political class already afraid we might have to do something about Iran.
We certainly need a debate about what to do in regard to Iran. The answer to that debate might or might not be an aerial campaign to destroy those assets. But surely, a debate must start with an accurate assessment of what the problem is. We are slowly getting back to that accuracy.
But we may have far less time than our experts have led us to believe we have. Please, go read the NIE summary. It isn't too late to actually read the words and stop relying on what the press told us the summary said.
Already, the confidence levels of the NIE report are expiring.
Have a nice day.
