Sheik Salah al-Obeidi, a spokesman for al-Sadr in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, said that if the cleric failed to issue a statement by Saturday saying that the cease-fire was extended, "then that means the freeze is over." Al-Sadr's followers would be free to resume attacks.
On an Internet site representing al-Sadr, al-Obeidi said that al-Sadr "either will announce the extension or will stay silent and not announce anything. If stays silent, that means that the freeze is over."
Al-Obeidi said that message "has been conveyed to all Mahdi Army members nationwide."
I'd guess we'll hear something by Saturday. I just don't think that Sadr can make good on his boasts. He is weaker with his militia splintered and tainted by Iranian ties. We've been arresting and killing his militias leaders. The Iraqi government is stronger now. Sadr is far from completing his Iranian studies to elevate his authority to bolster a confrontation with the government (if Iraqis buy the Persian sheepskin, of course). And the Sunni Arab enemies are declining rapidly, meaning Iraqi and US forces would be able to focus on Sadr's thugs if Sadr decides to fight. Killing Sunni Arab civilians was within the Mahdi Army's abilities, but two 2004 insurrections showed that US forces have his number.
I think Sadr looks more powerful with threats alone and that actual confrontation will expose his weakness. Of course, Sadr might not see things this way. If he revolts again, he must die.
UPDATE: Sadr will make his views known on Friday:
Sheik Salah al-Obeidi, a spokesman for al-Sadr in the Shiite holy city of Najaf, said Wednesday that if the cleric failed to issue a statement by Saturday saying the cease-fire was extended, "then that means the freeze is over."
The Shiite lawmaker said the statement being released Friday does address the cease-fire, but he couldn't say whether it extended or ended it.
Increasing the drama, I'd guess, to make his generous extension of the ceasefire seem like a gift rather than a reality of his weakness relative to American and Iraqi government forces.
UPDATE: Sadr extends the ceasefire another six months. Don't be confused. He did this from weakness and not strength. I know it is fashonable to speak of his militia fighting us to a standstill in 2004 but in reality we decimated his militia and Sadr survived only because of his family reputation and the intervention of the Iraqi government which didn't want to take on that name.
