"Any member of the Mehdi Army who conducts violent acts during the ceasefire, the Sadr office declares they will no longer be part of the Mehdi Army," Sadr said in a statement read to Reuters by Ubaidi.
He said Sadr had issued the statement in response to rumors the ceasefire was about to come to an end. He declined to say whether it would be extended when its term lapses.
Attacks across Iraq have fallen by 60 percent since June 2007 after a series of security crackdowns. A return to hostilities could seriously jeopardize those gains.
A new report by the International Crisis Group think-tank said the respite offered by the ceasefire was "exceedingly frail" and that Sadrists -- many of whom complain they are targeted by security forces -- remain extremely powerful. ...
Sadr, who led two uprisings against U.S. forces in 2004, ordered the Mehdi Army ceasefire so he could reorganize the splintered militia. Ubaidi has said Sadr is gauging the mood of senior figures before deciding whether to extend the truce.
I think the reason that Sadr is unwilling to fight is because he is weakened and not because he remains extremely powerful. Sadr was stronger in 2004 and he got his butt whipped twice by our forces while we were hip-deep in a fight against Baathists and al Qaeda. Today, the Sunni Arab resistance is fading and the Iraqi government is stronger.
Sadr won't survive round three with American and Iraqi forces able to focus more of our efforts against him. If he's smart, he'll continue to work within the system and just pose as a tough guy without putting his strength to a test he will visibly lose and probably get himself killed.
