The Dog That Did Not Bark

The war in Iraq is not over, but the enemy is clearly losing.

Al Qaeda is trying to regroup in the north with their much reduced strength.

The Baathists and nationalist Sunni Arab resistance groups have lost much of their strength to defections to the government.

Sadr's thugs are splintered and weakened, pretending their extension of their ceasefire is a favor rather than an admission of their weakness.

And even the Kurds seem to accept that they are better off within Iraq than trying to go it alone (and landlocked, which should have been the first clue that independence could not work).

Crime and corruption as well as hostile neighbors are problems that we must help the Iraqis overcome over the next decade even as we help nail down the fading threats with increasingly numerous and capable Iraqi security forces. This should mean that our casualties will remain low and at some point will drop off to peacetime levels.

I won't say we have won and haven't despite the great progress evident since fall 2007 that tempted me to do so. But have no doubt, this is a winning trend even though our press is silent for the most part regarding this story. The press has moved on to faux sex scandals and other vital issues of the day. Which should tell you more about the reality on the ground in Iraq than anything else.

One day, it will be embarassing to remember that so many people insisted our enemies were destined to win the war. And then it would be fun to ask them why those doing this insisting who were also members of Congress in 2002 voted to go to war anyway.