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Saturday, January 19, 2008

Talking Past Us

Russia reminds us of their conventional military strength weakness:

"We do not intend to attack anyone, but we consider it necessary for all our partners in the world community to clearly understand ... that to defend the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia and its allies, military forces will be used, including preventively, including with the use of nuclear weapons," Baluyevsky said at a military conference in a remark broadcast on state-run cable channel Vesti-24.

According to the state-run news agency RIA-Novosti, Baluyevsky added that Russia would use nuclear weapons and carry out preventive strikes only in accordance with Russia's military doctrine.

The military doctrine adopted in 2000 says Russia may use nuclear weapons to counter a nuclear attack on Russia or an ally, or a large-scale conventional attack that poses a critical risk to Russia's security.


Yes, this is nothing new. And while the words are directed at the West, this is sheer nonsense:

Baluyevsky spoke amid persistent disputes between Moscow and the West over issues including U.S. plans for missile defense facilities in former Soviet satellites, NATO members' refusal to ratify an updated European conventional arms treaty, and Kosovo's bid for independence from Serbia.

Like Golts, Moscow-based military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer said Russia plays up its nuclear deterrent because of its weakness in terms of conventional arms. "We threaten the West that in any kind of serious conflict, we'll go nuclear almost immediately," he said.

But in the absence of a real threat from the West, he said, "It's just talk."


While the words were said to the West, the real problem lies to Russia's east and that's who the Russians where really talking to. Without nukes, Russia can't defend their Far East against a serious Chinese attack.

But it is easier to rattle such nuclear sabres against the West which doesn't threaten Russia than directly to China which might take offense at a direct threat.