China's big problem with invading Taiwan is not just whether or not they could defeat the defending forces. The big problem is American control of the world's oceans. It's been that way for over sixty years, and many people just take it for granted. Chinese military planners see that control, which they can't break, as a major obstacle to their success in grabbing Taiwan.
I agree completely. We dominate the sea and could strangle China at will.
The Chinese are trying to insulate themselves from a short cut with their own petroleum reserve, Strategypage goes on:
For the last five years, China has been building a national fuel reserve. These oil tanks are still being filled. In a year or two, they will have 14 million tons (China imports that much every five weeks). That's to keep the civilian economy and military operations going for 30 days, but that would be on the assumption that use of personal vehicles would be restricted, and even the commercial sector would have to get by on less. China wants to expand that reserve to 75 days, but that would take 5-10 years.Having enough oil to ride out a short stoppage of imports has a logical consequence for Chinese planning, Strategypage continues:
A Chinese invasion would have to succeed fairly quickly. Running out of oil is only one of the considerations. China can produce about a million tons a day. The Taiwanese would have a hard time attacking China's oil fields (which are largely deep in the interior), but putting some smart bombs on pipeline pumping stations near the coast (where most of the oil is consumed) would severely diminish access to that oil for a while.
In other words, cutting off oil supplies for the military is a problem, but not THE problem. Keeping the economy going is the major consideration. The current Chinese government, which is basically the unelected leadership of the Chinese Communist Party, survives only as long as the economy flourishes. Without that ten million tons of oil imports every month, or the ability to export goods, the economy collapses, and along with that so does support for the Communist Party.
The Chinese would want the war to be short even if they were certain they did not have to survive a blockade. Just avoiding overt US and Japanese intervention will make it easier to restore peace if no American or Japanese blood is shed while conquering Taiwan. Avoiding a shooting war between two nuclear powers able to strike each other would also be nice since the consequences of this could spiral out of control. Capturing Taiwan fast is a must for China for many reasons.
Where I part company is the idea that because a war would hurt their economy, China would not invade Taiwan. Strategypage concludes:
It's all about the economy, control of Taiwan is only a political sideshow.
I do not buy that it is all about the economy. When has history ever been about a rational calculation of how decisions affect the economy or even whether the economy is the focus of decisions?
Even if this logic is true, what if China faces an economic depression? Might not an invasion of Taiwan rally nationalistic support in the face of lack of economic progress? China's rulers wouldn't be the first to seek foreign conquest to still domestic unrest.
I just don't buy the idea that rulers rationally at all times weigh interests and costs. Nor do I accept that China's rulers have a realistic assessment of the situation even if they rationally weigh the risks.
If the Chinese convince themselves that we won't fight, or that we won't decide to fight quickly enough, or that we won't fight if we take casualties and so knocking out a carrier would deter us, or that a cyber-offensive on our civilian sector will warn us off, or that a single nuclear strike on Hawaii or Guam or Alaska would deter us without sparking a nuclear counter-strike, then the Chinese might order their forces to go having assessed that the risk of our intervention is nil.
The Chinese want Taiwan very badly. Don't assume we can pretend to define what is rational for them. And don't pretend the Chinese couldn't pull it off.
