The New Front

While some critics have been claiming that the Afghan campaign is failing, I have not been persuaded despite the cries of near panic. These critics have been saying the same thing for six years now. I see no reason to believe they are right in this latest rendition.

I think we've been doing well enough. And I also think that the enemy will turn to Pakistan as their Iraqi and Afghan adventures fail.

So when border violence is declining, this could be a sign that my conjecture about the new campaign is accurate:

A top American general said Sunday that attacks along the Afghan-Pakistan border have dropped more than 40 percent since July and the U.S. and its allies are making progress in the fight against the Taliban.

Brig. Gen. Joseph Votel said the decrease in insurgent activity along the border could be attributed to the onset of winter, a rise in insurgent attacks in Pakistan and an increase in communication and coordination among NATO, Afghan and Pakistani forces.

Recent media and analysts' reports have said the international mission is not succeeding and Afghanistan is becoming increasingly unstable. This year has been the deadliest since the 2001 U.S.-led invasion, with more than 6,300 people killed in the violence, mostly militants, according to an Associated Press count based on official figures.

The country has also seen a record number of suicide bomb attacks — more than 140 — this year.

But Votel, the deputy commanding general of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, said Sunday that the international mission is making progress.

"I don't agree that we're moving in a negative direction," Votel told journalists at Bagram, the main U.S. base.

"I think we are making progress. This is a long-term proposition and there is a long way to go in security and development and other aspects here, but we are making progress and moving forward," he said. ...

Asked if al-Qaida fighters could be moving from Iraq into the Afghanistan-Pakistan region, he said it was a "distinct possibility."

Remember, the vast majority of those 6,000 deaths in Afghanistan this year are Taliban terrorists. This article is rare in even hinting that this number isn't just victims.

More important, in addition to interdicting the border and the coming winter, one cause of the decline is the perception that the enemy is focusing on Pakistan more. This could yet be the last jihad.