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Monday, December 17, 2007

Correlation of Forces

Violence in Iraq is dwindling:

Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the man responsible for the ground campaign in Iraq, said that the first six months of 2007 were probably the most violent period since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. The past six months, however, had seen some of the lowest levels of violence since the conflict began, Odierno said, attributing the change to an increase in both American troops and better-trained Iraqi forces.


Lieutenant General Odierno summed up the situation in Iraq perfectly with very few words:

"I feel we are back in '03 and early '04. Frankly I was here then, and the environment is about the same in terms of security in my opinion," he said. "What is different from then is that the Iraqi security forces are significantly more mature."


This is it exactly. It isn't just that we have reduced violence to the levels that predate the jihadi and extremist Shia violence when basically the Baathists were the only enemy in the field. While the enemies in Iraq surged their violence and were beaten back in turn and defeated since early 2004, while we were "losing" the war (according to the anti-war side), the Iraqi government and security forces have grown tremendously despite the violence. We atomized the enemy and molecularized the government forces.

We are winning. And our accumulating victory is accelerating.