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Sunday, November 04, 2007

If You Break It, You Own It

I've been arguing for some time that the trend in Iraq is toward an American/Iraqi victory. The Sunnis have been losing and the Shias no longer seem interested in pro-Iranian factions.

Indeed, this is why I wasn't initially a supporter of the idea of a surge. I worried we'd have a pointless surge that would just add troops and squander our dwindling patience without doing anything of use. As the surge was proposed, my worries eased a lot though I worried what we could do given the heightened expectations.

But the surge has accelerated the trends already in place and while I am not bold enough to claim victory, I'm surely comfortable saying our pace of winning has accelerated after nearly stalling in the period summer 2006 to summer 2007.

Strategypage has a very good piece summarizing these features of the war:


While much was made of the "surge offensive" of the last six months, this was not the key factor in reducing American casualties. The big deal was the collapse of the Sunni Arab resistance, and this has been building for over a year.


And:


Finally, the radical Shia militias (the Badr and Sadr crews) have backed off on their attacks on American troops. Even Iran has stopped sending terrorism supplies to the Badr and Sadr followers. The enemy, in a word, has broken.


Or rather, our enemies have broken.

We have to pursue our broken enemies lest they regain their composure. As with the question of whether we have won or are winning, breaking the enemy is not the same as declaring victory.

Remember, while much of our Congress broke in the spring, the enemy was unable to push the whole institution into full-bore retreat. Our Congress regained its composure and since then, our military and the Iraqis have made the accumulating victory more apparent.

Victory is within our grasp.

UPDATE: We pursue our enemies still:

American and Iraqi forces on Monday launched a massive assault targeting Al-Qaeda fighters in four northern provinces of Iraq, the US military said.

It did not name the provinces but said only that the "Task Force Iron" operation was in the north. The US forces' northern command has troops in provinces including Salaheddin, Nineveh, Kirkuk and Diyala.

The statement did not give precise numbers of the troops involved, but said three US brigade combat teams and three Iraqi army divisions were taking part.

"This operation is a relentless pursuit of Al-Qaeda, who we have seen attempting to move into new areas and disrupt the security of the local populace," said commander Brigadier General Jim Boozer in the statement.


This is no time to let up the pressure. Kill them all.