Major-General Joseph Fil, commander of U.S. forces in Baghdad, said al Qaeda in Iraq no longer had a foothold in any part of the city of 7 million people. The group is blamed for most big car bombings that have killed thousands.
Death squad killings in Baghdad were also down 80 percent from their peak while roadside bombings had fallen 70 percent, Fil told foreign reporters without giving specific timeframes.
"I think there is going to come a day when certainly we will need less coalition troops in Baghdad," Fil said.
Asked when that would be, he said: "Already we are at a point where we'll see that as the surge forces depart the city, we'll see a natural decline in numbers and I'm very comfortable where that comes to, with that gradual attrition of forces."
The Iraqis will have to step up and Fil thinks they can, in part with the help of local citizens (I have advocated local defense forces to spread a wide net of pro-government forces that will ensnare any enemies trying to operate):
But while fewer coalition troops would be required, more Iraqi security forces would be needed to fill any gaps, he said.
He said the Iraqi security forces had become "much, much more effective," while volunteers who patrolled their own neighborhoods in coordination with the Iraqi security forces had had a positive impact.
Given two other attempts to calm Baghdad in 2006 that failed after only a few weeks of reduced violence, this assessment demonstrates some confidence, it seems.
We are clearly winning this war. But I'm still looking for the appearance of a new threat that will spoil the victory parade. So far, so good, but I remain cautious and will watch developments closely.
