This article is the first with a real description:
IT was just after midnight when the 69th Squadron of Israeli F15Is crossed the Syrian coast-line. On the ground, Syria’s formidable air defences went dead. An audacious raid on a Syrian target 50 miles from the Iraqi border was under way.
At a rendezvous point on the ground, a Shaldag air force commando team was waiting to direct their laser beams at the target for the approaching jets. The team had arrived a day earlier, taking up position near a large underground depot. Soon the bunkers were in flames.
Ground troops, but not as raiders. They were target designators. Despite GPS, in clear weather, laser-guided bombs are more accurate. And if the aircraft must enter and exit the target area fast, having troops on the ground to paint the targets would help a lot.
And despite alternative explanations, the nuclear angle keeps coming up:
The triangular relationship between North Korea, Syria and Iran continues to perplex intelligence analysts. Syria served as a conduit for the transport to Iran of an estimated £50m of missile components and technology sent by sea from North Korea. The same route may be in use for nuclear equipment.
But North Korea is at a sensitive stage of negotiations to end its nuclear programme in exchange for security guarantees and aid, leading some diplomats to cast doubt on the likelihood that Kim would cross America’s “red line” forbidding the proliferation of nuclear materials.
The relationship perplexes intelligence agents? Good grief ... This explains much of our intelligence problem, I suppose.
Look, one party has nuclear and missile technology. One has money but is under sanctions. And the other is broke, not ounder as many sanctions, and is willing to pass money and WMD between the other two for a cut of the action. Got it?
And to the professional diplomats who don't think North Korea would "risk" talks with us by selling WMD technology, get real people. Pyongyang doesn't believe there will be any fallout from such a deal. They believe we are so invested in talks that we will let such a side deal slide rather than risk the glamour of a signing ceremony with fancy bound documents affixed with impressive wax seals and colorful ribbons. I'm guessing the North Koreans are right.
I'd like to know how the ground forces got out of Syria. They did not fly across Syria to get to Israel, I dare say. So what was it? Turkey or Iraq? I'd guess Iraq. I've long advocated things quietly blowing up in Syria over the role Damascus plays in killing Americans in Iraq. And Iraq has warned the Syrians to back off, I believe.
Hell, as long as I'm wondering, were they Israeli ground troops at all? We passed along aircraft codes to the Israelis to avoid having them accidentally shooting down our aircraft? Why? They didn't cross into Iraq where we patrol, right? Or did they?
So did the Israeli aircraft and/or ground forces exit through Iraqi air space rather than cross back across an alerted Syrian air defense network? Did American or Iraqi special forces paint the targets?
I imagine much more remains to be revealed about the Big Hole Incident.
UPDATE: For those who insist North Korea wouldn't risk talks to earn some bucks, check out the remark of South Korea's foreign minister who dismissed the talk of North Korean-Syrian nuclear deals:
"Now, no one is talking about the suspicions regarding North Korea and Syria with a clear basis," Yonhap news agency quoted Song as telling reporters. The Foreign Ministry said it could not immediately confirm the report.
Good grief. Instead of saying we need to investigate such suspicions just in case, he dismisses the charge on the basis that there is no photograph of Kim Jong-Il and Assad french kissing in celebration of the deal while Ahmadinejad looks on approvingly.
This is exactly how North Korea expects to get away with any nuclear sales. They will deny everything and pacifists will insist that only iron-clad proof is sufficient to doubt the Pillsbury Nuke Boy's word.
And denying that Syria could use such materials does not address whether Syria is the front man for Iran--which could use that material.
UPDATE: Former Spook (Tip to the Corner) discusses the codes we gave Israel. As I figured, talking about Israel worrying about shooting down our aircraft makes no sense. The codes were to keep us from shooting down their aircraft in air space we patrol. The Israeli aircraft either exited through Iraq or worried they'd need to in an emergency. But even if the Israeli aircraft could exit by flying back out across Syria, the helicopters with troops could not. Could the Israelis have exited to northern Iraq and then hooked into Turkey? Or landed in Kurdish areas of Iraq to refuel and then cross Iraq and Jordan to go home? Or Turkey?
Also, Former Spook thinks that commandos would retrieve evidence from the site since GPS bombs would be better than laseer guided bombs. I disagree. If the targets were just shipped in, the coordinates would not be fixed yet (and that fixed point would likely be deep underground), so painting the targets wherever they were at the time of the strike would be necessary.
Finally, if the strike package was 4 F-16s flying cover and 2 F-15s that hit the ground targets, I find it hard to believe that they hit conventional munitions depots. The Israelis were going after just a small number of aim points and so they must have been high value targets. This means nuclear related since Syria already has chemical warheads. I just don't buy it that the Israelis hit weapons destined for Hizbollah in Lebanon. The risk was too great.
But this is still a lot of speculation resting on published reports and selective discounting of some elements of those reports.
