Last week, CNN's Glenn Beck aired a weeklong series of reports regarding purported plans by al Qaeda to coordinate a series of attacks at U.S. schools. Author Brad Thor, formerly of the Department of Homeland Security's 'Red Cell' suggests that the Beslan attack was a dry run, and that al Qaeda hopes to prompt an overwhelming and irrational 'hate response' against Muslims. It's al Qaeda's hope that this would set off a massive war between Islam and the West.
Faced with declining support among Moslems, al Qaeda hopes that a full war of civilizations will drive Moslems to supporting jihad and al Qaeda. This would mirror the enemy's Iraq strategy of destroying the Golden Dome mosque to foment a civil war between Shias and Sunnis. With the jihadis losing support among Sunni Arabs in Iraq, the jihadis hoped rage would lead Shias to kill Sunni Arabs and that fear of Shias would drive Sunni Arabs to al Qaeda for protection.
Since we are already killing al Qaeda quite effectively in Iraq and their Taliban allies in Afghanistan, there isn't a lot we could do to retaliate against such a murder spree against our children.
But it would be tough to argue that the ongoing war is enough of a "response." So we would have to respond. Because if we didn't, private groups would strike back. And they'd do so in ways that would probably spark that war of civilization.
So if we have to make a major strike against al Qaeda without sparking the Moslem Arab world to rally to al Qaeda, what do we do? I say we drop a Ranger regiment into Pakistan's border region that we think a major al Qaeda concentration is located and, with air support, wipe it out to the last man and goat. Maybe we get lucky and get Osama (or find his grave). We'd have to do it fast, while the world was in shock about the school attacks. Delay and we won't be given the latitude to really work over the enemy inside Pakistan.
But responding would be a dilemma. Respond too hard and we might create the war of civilizations between Islam and the West. Fail to respond and we might get it anyway if our people respond with violence. And if our people respond, don't rule out the worst.
The enemy plays with fire.
