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Monday, August 27, 2007

Stranglehold

China's booming economy is fueled by overseas trade that lies far beyond China's capacity to defend.

India has the naval power to stop China's oil imports from the Middle East and Africa.

And India's air force is expanding its scope of action to further increase India's ability to interdict Chinese energy supplies (via my Jane's email updates):

India is revising its defence doctrine and envisions the extension of the Indian Air Force's (IAF's) strategic reach from the Persian Gulf to the Strait of Malacca; transforming itself into an air power as part of a move to cover the full spectrum of defence. The initial draft of the doctrine, which has been created under the supervision of newly appointed IAF Commander Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major, is likely to undergo a "few" revisions before being finalised, official sources said.


No matter the periodic ups and downs of normal diplomatic tussling, this capability pretty much ensures that China will view India as a potential enemy. No matter how friendly these two growing powers could be, India's ability to choke off China's economy will be a prospect too frightening for China to ignore.

Fear is a powerful motivator and with domestic tranquility resting on near-breakneck economic progress, the communists in Peking will always view India as a potential threat to their economy and ultimately their rule, and not as a potential friend.