Confidence in Maliki’s government seems to be plummeting, and various Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish chieftains seem to be farther apart than ever when it comes to vital legislation, such as the law to share Iraq’s oil wealth.
Of course, no serious proponent of the “surge” expected that Iraqis would get their act together overnight. In fact, the theory has always been that gains in security are a necessary prerequisite for the major political factions to make compromises. Since the gains in security are just beginning, it is far too soon to say that political progress won’t happen, too. After all, who would have predicted the turnaround in the attitude of the tribes that has occurred over the past year? Yet even supporters of the surge—a group to which I belong—must admit, if we’re being honest with ourselves, that it’s dismaying to see the political situation regressing, at least at the national level, even as the security situation is progressing.
That doesn’t mean it’s prudent to wash our hands of Iraq, or give up on the surge. Cordesman’s report, making the case for “strategic patience,” has it right. But even the most ardent backers of General Petraeus should not let their hopes run out of control. Given how bad the situation was by the time Petraeus took over, there is still a possibility he could do everything right and fail.
Our troops are having success in this war. The surge is advancing that success in the new environment of post-Samarra Iranian/Syrian instigated sectarian violence. Even though this war requires mostly non-military success to win, since this is a war nonetheless, the military success is important and necessary. I think we will win this war and the surge is doing as well as I could hope given my concerns that I expressed prior to the surge about strategy and metrics.
But don't think the surge is the beginning and end of the debate. We are certainly winning but we have not yet won.
I also worried that the surge would unreasonably increase expectations for rapid victory. War supporters might be more prone to losing heart with unrealistic expectations for rapid victory.
This war will still take time to finally win.
UPDATE: Austin Bay calls this the need for "strategic patience" and extends the argument to the wider war:
Toppling the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam in Iraq created the opportunity for significant, positive, long-term change throughout the region. Now, the challenge is twofold: nurturing and supporting the incremental cultural, political and personal changes that make for societal change, and sustaining America's will to maintain that support.
For the surge to really work, the effort must be sustained.
Sustain our progress. Have the patience to match the complexity of the task.
