Guarding the Surge

The surge will need to draw down starting in April 2008 absent an infusion of new troops. With Guard units alerted, we can probably extend the surge to the end of the calendar year if we had to and maybe even maintain a 1:1 ratio of time at home to time in combat for our brigades.

But I've read that the Army really wants to get the ratio down to 3:1. With 43 combat brigades in the force next year (I'm assuming), what can we keep in Iraq next year assuming we want to get to 3:1? Well, dropping of a brigade for South Korea and another as a strategic reserve ready brigade, 41 Army brigades could support about 9 brigades abroad at 3:1 and allowing for some overlap.

If we add a Guard brigade per month to Iraq as the initial surge brigades pull out one per month, we could delay the beginning of the drawdown to August 2008. And then the slow drawdown of a brigade per month could get us from 20 Marine regimental combat teams and Army brigades down to 7 Army brigades in another year--say September 2009.

Add in two brigades in Afghanistan and assume the Marines are basically our and retooling for interventions, and we're at the 9 brigade limit and the end of major worries about stressing the Army.

Regardless of the success of the surge militarily, our major role in Iraq will end. Remember that the surge isn't the end but a means. Our job is to make sure our troops accomplish something lasting while they are there in larger numbers so they can turn over the fight to Iraqis. It has always been their fight, after all, and not just ours.

I'm not saying we will do this, but this is a plausible path to a desired end state.

UPDATE: The Army doesn't see going back to 12-month deployments before June 2008 (Tip to Stand-To!):

All U.S. soldiers deploying to Iraq and Afghanistan between now and at least June 2008 will likely be facing the extended 15-month deployments, a top Army commander said Tuesday.

Commanders are assessing the situation on the ground now, but Gen. Richard Cody, the Army’s vice chief of staff, said it will take until at least June to shrink average deployments back to 12 months while maintaining the 158,000 troops now deployed in the region.

But as my amateur number-crunching indicates, it is certainly possible. But without Guard brigades, if we keep the current numbers in Iraq, we won't be able to do that even come June.