The latest edition of the Brookings Iraq Index states that there are 70,000 Sunni insurgents and supporters. The chart that shows prior insurgent/terrorist strength in the 20,000 range implies that the enemy has grown.
This is simply not true, as I explain in this post about the 70,000 estimate:
If the new number of 70,000 includes all full and part-time fighters plus support people as the analyst states, then calling shooters 9% of the total, we'd have 6,300 shooters in that mix involved in 100 contacts per day. This could be a reduction to just a third of the old strength if the old number just meant shooters as it surely seems. It would also mean that the old number of 20,000 meant a total of 220,000 shooters and supporters back then.
Unless someone wants to argue that the old numbers includes shooters and supporters. Which would mean that more than tripling the numbers of the enemy did not provide an increase in casualties reflecting a tripling of enemy strength nor did it result in larger enemy attacks.
And with the increasing use of IEDs, whose discovery is counted as a "contact," it is easier to understand how a decrease in enemy strength is not reflected in decreased contacts. Add in more of our troops acting more aggressively and you can see that the situation is not static and so a trend here is more difficult to assess from the aggregate number.
The Brookings report is pretty thorough and I commend them for this effort, but just slapping down the number of 70,000 when it is not consistent with past reports is misleading. Either adjust the 70,000 number of shooters and supporters down to 6,300 shooters as past numbers reflect or adjust past shooter numbers up to reflect supporters as well.
The Sunni Arab-based insurgencies and terrorism are dwindling. Don't get freaked out by the new big number.
Not that they are the last threat in Iraq we must defeat.
