I've mentioned that our war in Afghanistan is at risk because of threats to Pakistan's stability:
Thousands of people have joined protests across the country since President Gen. Pervez Musharraf ousted Chaudhry on March 9, triggering a political crisis that has challenged the general's grip on power as he prepares to seek another five-year term later this year.
Roads leading to the city of Abbotabad were decorated with banners and portraits of the judge. About 50,000 people greeted his convoy as it arrived in the city. Supporters danced to the beat of drums as they chanted "Go, Musharraf, go."
Our relations with Pakistan are based on foreign policy realism at its most basic--he helps us enough for us to not care too much about how he rules. I continue to worry that the Pakistani people will overthrow Musharraf and blame us for his rule.
In addition, our access to Afghanistan from the north is threatened by Russian and Chinese pressure:
The Manas Air Base was set up to support U.S. operations in nearby Afghanistan, but it is part of high-stakes contest for political influence being played out across a region with vast natural gas and oil reserves.
Small, poor and politically unstable, Kyrgyzstan is nevertheless being aggressively courted by the United States, Russia and China because of its strategic location. Russia also has an air base in this former Soviet republic of 5 million, part of a regional security treaty.
But tensions surrounding the air base have hurt Washington's efforts to gain favor here. There have been disputes over payments, a fatal shooting and the mysterious reported kidnapping of an American.
The Kyrgyz parliament has urged the government to evict the Manas base, a position backed by Russia.
Kyrgyzstan is not exactly a model of democracy either. And we are limited in how we can pressure the government.
So our access to Afghanistan is at risk from losing the rulers of two countries.
Of course, if we flip Iran, we will have cut our Gordion Knot by gaining access to Afghanistan through Iran:
One of the benefits of overthrowing the mullah regime in Iran and replacing it with a government that reflects the pro-American sentiment of the people of Iran will be the land corridor it will open to Afghanistan.
Now, our access to Afghanistan is from the north through the unstable "Stans" and back through an increasingly unfriendly Russia; or through Pakistan which we have to coddle to keep land-locked Afghanistan from being cut off from us.
Open up a supply route through Iran to Afghanistan and suddenly we don't need to be quite so reliant on our Central Asian bases or so careful with a Pakistan that will not crack down on the Taliban who hide and organize inside Pakistan. We won't have to be so shy when it comes to hunting bin Laden there, either.
Our freedom to pressure Kyrgyzstan and Iran to press for reforms would be greatly enhanced, and we'd face less of a chance of a popular revolt in either country blaming us for their rulers, if we'd lessen our need for their help.
It is amazing that so many problems are lessened when the mullah regime is gone.
