This is one of the lessons of the Iraq War. Saddam was so distrustful of his military that he made it nearly useless before we launched one JDAM. When we did start shooting, the attack did not rally Iraqis to Saddam but made Iraqis more eager to run away.
So logically, the most effective thing we can do against a nation we plan to attack is get them wondering about their own loyalties:
Iraq's army in 2003 disintegrated due to a far more interesting factor than simple bombs on target. The Saddam regime itself paralyzed and demoralized the Iraqi army and Republican Guards long before we crossed the border. Ground and air attacks destroyed Iraqi ground units, and even units not attacked disappeared as troops deserted and went home.
So rather than focusing too much on the technical aspects of destroying an enemy army, if we anticipate war with any thug state our best course of action is to create fear of the state's military in the regime's corridors. The target state's military doesn't even need to be disloyal if we can distribute enough disinformation to make the regime think their military is disloyal. And why not support efforts at coups? Even if they are long shots that fail, the cumulative effect of failed coups will lead the regime to distrust the military.
Given enough time, the result of this distrust will be a regime military watched by other security forces; a military deprived of spare parts, modern weapons, training, and ammuntion; a military that will see a loyal rival military force created by the regime that mistrusts it; a military whose officers are afraid to honestly report their weaknesses; and a military that won't be authorized to plan let alone deploy to meet foreign invasion out of fear that such movements will be the opening moves of a coup. And once at war, this military will be too fearful to fight as a coherent force or react quickly, having had initiative largely bled out of it.
Is this what is happening in Iran?
Iran has often accused the United States and Britain, which led the invasion of Iraq, of trying to undermine the security of the Islamic Republic. The ministry's statement did not refer to either country by name."The Intelligence Ministry succeeded in finding, recognizing and confronting some spy networks of infiltrating elements from the Iraqi occupiers in west, southwest and central Iran," said the statement, carried by the official IRNA news agency.
"These spy networks were guided by the intelligence services of the occupiers and were supported by some influential Iraqi groups. The detailed news will be announced in the next few days."
Let me add that this approach works for regime change since without an external push, the shaky elements of the military can regain their composure and the regime can re-embrace their military if they think they really need it.
So is Iran paranoid enough? And are we doing what we can to make them paranoid enough?
