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Monday, June 18, 2007

Big Effort

If the jihadis in Iraq were bombing bridges and transportation infrastructure in an effort to defend their new locations in the surrounding areas around Baghdad, the kickoff of a major effort to shut down terrorist operations in the Baghdad belts made this effort futile.

The effort is ongoing:

U.S. and Iraqi forces began major military operations Monday to the north and south of Baghdad, while Iraqi officials said 36 people were killed in clashes in southern Iraq.

An official in the office of Iraq's national security adviser confirmed the operations, which were also launched in the Tharthar area near Fallujah and in Diyala province.

Iraqi security forces were in the lead, backed by U.S. forces, the official said on condition of anonymity for security reasons. He refused to estimate the number of troops involved, or how long the operations would last.

The U.S. military confirmed operations were under way but did not give more details.

"We started operations a couple days ago in some areas and we started operations this week in other areas," military spokesman Lt. Col. Christopher Garver said. He declined to be more specific, saying only that the operations were taking place across Baghdad and across Iraq.

This report is unclear on whether American forces are at Amarah, close to the Iranian border and an area I didn't think we operated in:

Coalition forces came under small arms fire and rocket-propelled grenade attacks during the raids, and called in air support, the U.S. military statement said. The suspects were killed by fire from aircraft, it said, without disclosing whether the forces were American or British.

If American, why are we there?

This is a big effort. Either this is just focused on Iraq as it appears on the surface or it is related to my suspicion that we are about to take down the mullah regime in Iran before Tony Blair steps down as prime minister. That is, if we are going to hit Iran, we'd want to blunt their options for counter-attacking inside Iraq. This effort follows other recent efforts that address Iran's allies. If Israel hits Gaza hard in the next week to stun Hamas into at least temporary paralysis, I won't be surprised.

I've long wondered whether we or Iran will strike first. With Iran's apparent offensive going on and my perception of events indicating we will strike, the race may be on. To our advantage, with our long inaction in the face of Iranian provocation, the Iranians may be unaware that there is a race.

Blair will be out soon, so if my suspicions are correct about what President Bush wants to accomplish, action must take place soon.

I freely admit that I could be way off on connecting these dots. I've been wrong several times before on this question.

UPDATE: Still little in the news about the scale of this offensive. Which is one advantage of fighting away from Baghdad where the reporters are located. I said it before, just trading a secure Baghdad for more problems in the boonies without any change in violence levels is a net win for us. The article speaks of 10,000 troops attacking in Diyala province but does not mention anything about the Amarah region near Iran.

On the question of whether this is a big effort directed solely internally or whether this is a prelude to action against Iran, is this the last effort to see if the years-old EU effort at diplomacy can stop Iran?

Iran's top nuclear negotiator and the European Union's foreign policy chief will meet Saturday in Portugal for a new round of talks over Tehran's disputed nuclear program, state television reported.


I don't expect anything to happen on this diplomatic path given Iran's attitude:

Iran says it is too late to stop Iran's nuclear program because it has already achieved proficiency in the cycle of nuclear fuel — from extracting uranium ore to enriching it.

But if the meeting finally convinces the Europeans of the futility of their approach, perhaps they will sign off on destroying the mullah regime.

If so, is this a sign of hope for the near future?

Regime change for Iran may be a dead letter in the loftiest councils of world affairs, but as a prime goal, it is very much alive in the plans of some 200 exiled Iranian dissidents who gathered here in a basement conference hall these past three days to launch a movement they are calling "Solidarity Iran."

We are in the middle of a big effort in Iraq regardless of whether we are focused on Iraq or the source of the worst problems there from Iran and the broader mullah problem.

UPDATE: Israel has struck Hamas in Gaza:

Israeli aircraft fired missiles at two rocket launchers in northern Gaza, in the first aerial attack on the strip since Hamas vanquished the rival Fatah of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. No injuries were reported in the strike, which came in retaliation for militant rocket fire on Israel.

Israeli tanks, meanwhile, rolled about 600 yards inside southern Gaza before dawn, and four militants were killed in a gunbattle, Palestinian hospital officials said.

It was only a company-sized element and did not stay long.