All the blather from some circles in the U.S. about an imminent attack on Iran only plays into the hands of the Islamic radicals who control the government there. It works like this. If we don't attack, they'll cite their readiness to defend themselves as having successfully deterred the "Great Satan." If we do attack, the Iranian radicals can cry about being beaten up by the Great Satan, and rally the country (which generally despises their clerical rulers). This is why most of the talk about the U.S. attacking Iran is coming from Iran.
I guess I've contributed to this blather. In a small way, of course.
However, I've been clear that I prefer to overthrow the regime. Bombing is clearly not my first impulse. But if the choice is between having a mullah dictatorship with atomic bombs and people who like us or having a mullah Iran without atomic bombs and people who hate us (for a while anyway), I'll choose the latter every day. Like I've said, I'll draw little comfort if the Iranian people are really, really sad that their mullahs have nuked Charleston.
But I do wish to contest the notion that Iran wants to be bombed.
Oh, I have no doubt that the mullahs think that way. However, the Taliban wanted to be bombed, too. And they were toppled. Saddam, too, didn't seem to mind being bombed. He survived 1998's Desert Fox and figured he'd survive 2003, too. Both regimes figured a little bombing was a small price to pay yet are now gone.
You see, I have no doubt that Iran wants to be ineffectively bombed. That's what the Taliban and Saddam wanted. A little pointless bombardment and only a few of the very expendible people die (and the regime can lie about thousands killed to a receptive world audience), while the rest either rally to the regime from nationalism or fear that we will never actually come to kill the dictatorship.
But bombing that destroys their regime the way the Baathists and Taliban were sent packing? No, the mullahs don't want that kind of bombing.
But yeah, I suppose a lot of people talking about bombing Iran really are blathering. They just want the feel-good images of cruise missiles launching at night and some wreckage in Tehran for a short crack fix of faux resolve.
I want any bombing to be in support of a revolt. Have we really been so inept in our covert services that after four years we can't identify unhappy people and support a revolt? In one of the few Moslem nations where the people actually look at us with admiration? Where half the people aren't even Persian and only a fraction of the Persians support the mullahs?
But perhaps our CIA really does suck that badly. Far be it for me to rule that out. If we have no choice other than letting Iran go nuclear, I would support bombing Iran to smash up the WMD network and regime supporting infrastructure. Better to buy time for a real solution than just pretend we can live with an Iranian bomb.
Is this really blathering?
