'A VERY big fish" - so Tehran sources de scribe former Deputy Defense Minister Ali-Reza Askari (sometimes called "Asghari" in the West), who disappeared in Istanbul on Sunday.
With word coming out that he is talking about this or that, I still don't know what to believe. If he isn't talking, we'd want to say he is to see who panics and runs. If he is talking about X, we'd either want the Iranians to think he's not talking or, if that is implausible, that he's only talking about Y.
But of real interest to me was this part:
Askari's disappearance fits an emerging pattern. Since December, the United States and its allies appear to have moved onto the offensive against the Islamic Republic's networks of influence in the Middle East:
* Jordan has seized 17 Iranian agents, accused of trying to smuggle arms to Hamas, and deported them quietly after routine debriefing.
* A number of Islamic Republic agents have been identified and deported in Pakistan and Tunisia.
* At least six other Iranian agents have been picked up in Gaza, where they were helping Hamas set up armament factories.
* In the past three months, some 30 senior Iranian officials, including at least two generals of Revolutionary Guards, have been captured in Iraq.
This is quite the list. And what more is there that we can't see?
I've suspected that if we want to go after Iran, we'd want to nullify Iran's option to foment trouble inside Iraq in response. So if we are on the verge of going after Iran, I expected we'd try to sweep up Sadr and his people before we strike/act. With Iran so active inside Iraq, that would have to include Iranian agents as well.
I don't know about you, but I think we sure seem to be doing this. But I've been expecting action against Iran for three years now and every time I think something feels imminent, nothing has happened. Either we've been ramping up pressure to lull the Iranians into inactivity when they see another imminent attack or I'm simply wrong a lot on this question. If the former, is this another lulling escalation or the real thing?
Iran's new year is less than two weeks away if that matters.
